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A recent headline from Redfin sparked a national conversation: the U.S. housing market now has nearly 500,000 more home sellers than buyers—the most significant gap in over a decade. Based on April 2025 MLS listings and Redfin’s buyer activity models, the report suggests a subtle yet important shift toward a buyer’s market.
Here in Scottsdale and across Metro Phoenix, the narrative holds to an extent. Inventory is increasing, particularly in core submarkets such as North Scottsdale, Arcadia, and Chandler. But the idea that there’s an overwhelming surplus of sellers? That deserves a closer look.
Counting Sellers Is Easy. Buyers? Not So Much.
Unlike seller inventory, which is straightforward to count through active MLS listings, estimating actual buyer demand is a challenging task. Redfin uses a combination of search traffic, showing requests, and submitted offers to model demand—but that doesn’t necessarily reflect how many buyers are serious, qualified, or financially ready to move forward in today’s high-rate environment.
Mortgage rates in Arizona are currently hovering around 6.94% for a 30-year fixed loan, according to Bankrate. That’s nearly double what many homeowners refinanced into during 2020 and 2021, and it’s impacting affordability—especially for first-time and move-up buyers.
What We’re Seeing in Scottsdale and Metro Phoenix
Across the Valley, inventory has indeed risen. According to Zillow, the number of active listings in Maricopa County increased 11% month-over-month in May, bringing total supply to nearly 6 months in several zip codes—what many consider a balanced market. Redfin’s local data supports this, showing an uptick in new listings in Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Mesa, particularly in the $ 800,000–$1.2 million price range.
Realtor.com notes that Scottsdale’s inventory specifically rose over 18% compared to May 2024. A mix of downsizing Baby Boomers is driving these increases, sellers are exiting second homes, and homeowners are no longer frozen in place by their pandemic-era mortgage rates.
Still, buyers haven’t disappeared. Showings remain steady, particularly in lifestyle-driven areas such as Kierland, DC Ranch, and the Biltmore. But the frenzied pace and multiple-offer madness of 2021 is long gone. Buyers are more discerning, financing is more complex, and the average number of days a property remains on the market is increasing.
So, What Does This Mean for You?
If You’re Selling:
- You may be facing more competition, especially if your home isn’t updated or priced correctly.
- Expect longer market times unless you’re in a high-demand neighborhood or price segment.
- Presentation and pricing are now mission-critical—today’s buyer has options.
If You’re Buying:
- You’ll likely see more listings and less pressure to rush a decision.
- Negotiation leverage is slowly shifting in your favor—especially if the home has been on the market for an extended period.
- Mortgage rates remain a hurdle, but sellers are more open to concessions or rate buydowns.
Bottom Line
Redfin’s estimate of half a million more sellers than buyers may reflect shifting momentum, but it doesn’t provide a complete picture of buyer behavior—especially in Arizona. Demand remains present, but it’s now more measured, cautious, and interest-rate sensitive.
In Scottsdale and the Metro Phoenix area, the story is one of rebalancing. The market isn’t crashing—it’s cooling. That’s creating opportunities for patient buyers and a need for strategic planning among sellers.
Want help navigating this new normal? Let’s talk locally. Because in real estate, context is everything.
